In September 2024, the composite index of non-fossil energy power generation was 147.8, an increase of 47.81 TP3T over the base period of 2020, and a year-on-year increase of 11.11 TP3T; among them, the composite index of new energy power generation was 221.1, an increase of 121.11 TP3T over the base period of 2020, and a year-on-year increase of 31.61 TP3T. Under the leadership of the "double carbon" target, the composite index of non-fossil energy power generation has grown rapidly. Among them:
In September, the index of the installed size of non-fossil energy power generation was 181.4, and the installed size of non-fossil energy power generation since the "14th Five-Year Plan" has increased by a cumulative total of 81.4%, up 22.2% year-on-year. The index of the proportion of installed non-fossil energy power generation was 126.3, and the proportion of installed non-fossil energy power generation since the "14th Five-Year Plan" has increased by a cumulative total of 26.3% (the proportion has increased from 44.8% at the end of 2020 to 56.5% at the end of September 2024).
The non-fossil energy power generation scale index was 145.2, up 45.2% from the 2020 base period, with an average annual growth of 9.8%, and a year-on-year growth of 5.9%, with the year-on-year growth rate dropping by 10.2 percentage points compared with that of the previous month, mainly due to the impact of the sharp drop in the growth rate of hydropower power generation.The index of the proportion of power generation from non-fossil energy sources in September was 107.3, which is 7.3% higher than that of 2020. base period proportion improved by 7.3%.
In September, the fossil energy generation composite index was 109.9, up 9.91 TP3T from the 2020 base period and up 3.91 TP3T year-on-year. of which:
The index of installed fossil energy power generation size is 113.0, and the installed fossil energy power generation size has increased by 13.0% cumulatively since the "14th Five-Year Plan", with a year-on-year growth of 3.3%. Since the "14th Five-Year Plan", the proportion of installed fossil energy power generation has decreased by a cumulative total of 21.3% (the proportion decreased from 55.2% at the end of 2020 to 43.5% at the end of September 2024), and the proportion of installed fossil energy power generation continues to decrease with the rapid growth of new energy power generation.
Fossil energy generation capacity scale index was 129.6, 29.6% than the base period of 2020, an average annual growth of 6.7%, an increase of 10.0%, the year-on-year growth rate than last month, an increase of 5.3 percentage points. Electricity consumption in the month grew faster, while the growth rate of non-fossil energy generation fell significantly from the previous month, fossil energy to play the role of the pocket to keep supply, the growth rate of power generation rose more than the previous month. Fossil energy power generation share index was 95.8, the proportion of fossil energy power generation compared with the base period fell by a cumulative total of 4.2%.
Table 1 National electricity supply series index table (100 for 2020 base period)
Figure 1 Graph of the National Electricity Supply Series Index (100 for the 2020 base period)
footnote
I. Indicators included in the National Electricity Supply Index Series
The indicators included in the power supply index series are: non-fossil energy power generation composite index, fossil energy power generation composite index, of which the new energy power generation composite index is included under the non-fossil energy power generation composite index. The indicators selected for each power generation composite index include four indicators, namely, the size and proportion of installed power generation capacity, and the size and proportion of power generation capacity. Based on these four indicators, each of them is given a certain weight (capacity, production and structure are considered equally, i.e., one-third of the weight of installed capacity and power generation capacity, one-sixth of the weight of installed capacity and power generation capacity, and one-third of the weight of installed capacity and power generation capacity), and the power generation composite index is synthesized by the index-weighting method. (New energy power generation index under the non-fossil energy power generation composite index is also a new energy power generation index). (The new energy power generation composite index under the non-fossil energy power generation composite index is also synthesized by the index weighting method according to the three dimensions of new energy power generation capacity, output and structure). The series of power supply indices can reflect the comprehensive situation of the growth trend of non-fossil energy (including new energy)/fossil energy power generation capacity and production, and the structural change trend since the fixed base period. The data of the indexes involved are all from the industry statistics of China Electricity Council.
II. Index period, base period
The National Electricity Supply Index series is compiled on a monthly basis. The series of indices selects 2020 as the fixed base period (with the 2020 base period of each indicator as 100) to reflect the cumulative changes in the relevant indicators since the 14th Five-Year Plan. For indicators such as installed power generation capacity, which reflects the capacity up to a certain point in time, the value of the point in time at the end of the year in which the base period is fixed is chosen as the base period. For indicators reflecting a certain period of time, such as the amount of electricity generated, the data of the same month of the year of the fixed base period are selected as the base period. In order to smooth out anomalies or random fluctuations in the actual statistical data, instead of directly adopting the statistical data, the weighted average method is used to assign values to the data for each month of the fixed base period.
III. Calculation of indices
The values of the indicators were first standardized (by dividing the current value of each indicator by the value of the base period). For the composite index, the index weighting method is used to calculate the composite index for comprehensive evaluation. The basic formula of the index weighting method is: composite index S = ΣPi * Wi, where Pi is the measured value of the ith sub-indicator after standardization, Wi is the weight value of the ith sub-indicator, which can be multiplied by the corresponding weight Wi to get the score value of a sub-indicator, and then summed up to get the composite indexes after calculating the scores of the sub-indicators respectively.
IV. Notes on relevant indicators
1. The types of non-fossil energy power generation include hydropower, nuclear power, grid-connected wind power, grid-connected solar power and biomass power generation; the types of new energy power generation include grid-connected wind power, grid-connected solar power and biomass power generation.
2. The type of fossil energy power generation includes thermal power other than biomass power generation in thermal power, mainly including coal power and gas power.
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